Northern Ireland Peace Index 2026
Peace is improving, but the structural foundations of peace remain fragile.
Northern Ireland has recorded its lowest levels of violence and fear of violence since 2019, improving 10.7% from the 2019 baseline. However, the structural foundations that sustain peace, measured by Positive Peace, have not strengthened at the same pace, raising questions about what is required to sustain peace over time.
Northern Ireland's Peace Trajectory, 2019–2025
- 10.7%
- Negative Peace improvedThe absence of violence and the fear of violence, 2019–2025.
- 1.2%
- Positive Peace improved only marginallyThe attitudes, institutions and structures that sustain peace, 2019–2025.
- 10 of 11
- Councils improved on negative peaceTen local government districts improved between 2019 and 2025; Antrim and Newtownabbey recorded a marginal deterioration.
The state of peace · 2019–2025
The gap between Negative Peace and Positive Peace continues to grow
The 1998 Agreement ended sustained political violence. The question now is whether the foundations that allow peace to endure are strengthening alongside that progress, and on this measure, progress has stalled.
Select an indicator
Year
- 2019 score
- 2.14
- 2025 score
- 1.91
- Change since 2019
- −0.22
- Past year
- −0.08
Scores range from 1–5, with lower scores indicating lower levels of violence and fear of violence.
Source: IEP calculations based on PSNI and NISRA Safe Community Survey statistics
Northern Ireland in its wider system
Peace in Northern Ireland is also shaped by the systems around it
Northern Ireland does not exist in isolation. It is part of broader systems that include its position in the UK, location on the island of Ireland and within a wider European context.Negative and Positive Peacefulness in Northern Ireland depends not only on local conditions, but also on the wider political, economic and institutional environments in which they are embedded.
Northern Ireland leads on six of the nine comparable Positive Peace indicators. Against the rest of the UK, Northern Ireland is ahead on equity and access: the gender pay gap, the NEET rate, absolute poverty and gigabit capable broadband all sit better than the British average, and life satisfaction and healthy life expectancy are marginally higher. The deficits are economic: output per head is 7.5 per cent lower, R&D spending 43.0 per cent lower and financial openness 52.7 per cent lower per person.
Gender pay gap2025
- NI
- 7.2%
- Rest of UK
- 10.9%
- Gap
- +34.0%
NEET rate2025
- NI
- 9.2%
- Rest of UK
- 12.5%
- Gap
- +26.4%
Absolute poverty2024
- NI
- 13.7%
- Rest of UK
- 17.5%
- Gap
- +21.6%
Gigabit capable broadband2025
- NI
- 94.2%
- Rest of UK
- 81.9%
- Gap
- +15.1%
Life satisfaction2023
- NI
- 7.63
- Rest of UK
- 7.44
- Gap
- +2.5%
Healthy life expectancy2024
- NI
- 60.8
- Rest of UK
- 59.7
- Gap
- +1.8%
GDP per capita2023
- NI
- £32,944
- Rest of UK
- £35,630
- Gap
- −7.5%
R&D spending2024
- NI
- £519/head
- Rest of UK
- £911/head
- Gap
- −43.0%
Financial openness2023
- NI
- £10,515/head
- Rest of UK
- £22,209/head
- Gap
- −52.7%
Source: IEP calculations based on official statistics (NISRA, ONS, CSO and Eurostat)
The geography of peace
Peace is uneven across Northern Ireland.
At LGD level, a strong Positive Peace position does not guarantee a strong negative peace position. Belfast records above-average performance on several structural foundations of peace yet concentrates the highest share of recorded violence among all the council areas. Derry and Strabane, by contrast, lags on a number of Positive Peace indicators yet has recorded some of the largest improvements on violence-related measures over the same period. The two dimensions can move independently, because each council area's social composition shapes them through different channels, so its standing on one measure is not a reliable guide to its standing on the other. The areas where peace is least consolidated are those marked by persistent deprivation and entrenched low trust in institutions. The Index maps the structural landscape of that challenge, where the deficits lie, and which districts are most exposed.
Select a district on the map to view its data
| Indicator | Ards and North Down 2025 | Northern Ireland 2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall score | 1.82 | 1.91 | |
| Homicide | 1.67 | 1.43 | |
| Violent and Weapon Crime | 2.12 | 2.57 | |
| Public Disorder | 1.83 | 1.86 | |
| Hate Crime | 1.39 | 2.00 | |
| Paramilitary Activity | 1.56 | 1.35 | |
| Worry about Crime | 2.37 | 2.26 |
Negative Peace score moved from 1.92 in 2019 to 1.82 in 2025 in Ards and North Down, against 2.14 to 1.91 across Northern Ireland.
- Largest improvement 2019–2025: Worry about Crime, −0.80 points (−25.3 per cent).
- Largest deterioration 2019–2025: Homicide, +0.33 points (+24.5 per cent).
- In 2025 the district scored 0.09 points below the Northern Ireland score, more peaceful than the region as a whole.
- Ranks 7 of 11 districts on this measure in 2025, where 1 is the most peaceful.
Scores range from 1 to 5, with lower scores indicating lower levels of violence and fear of violence.
Sources: PSNI Police Recorded Crime Statistics, PSNI Security Situation Statistics, PSNI Hate Motivation Statistics, NISRA Northern Ireland Safe Community Survey, IEP calculations.
Pathways to Peace Consolidation
Building peace beyond the absence of violence
Northern Ireland has successfully consolidated a relative absence of violence. However, the conditions required to move from the absence of violence to a fully functioning peaceful society are not yet fully established. Positive Peace is not deteriorating; it is broadly flat, and progress remains uneven across the region. The Index identifies four areas where strengthening underlying conditions can help consolidate peace over the long term. These conclusions should be read as long-term priorities based on the analysis of the available data rather than short-term policy prescriptions.
Institutional
Strengthen confidence in government, justice and public institutions through improved effectiveness, accountability and transparency.
The institutions established under the 1998 Agreement have been highly effective in eliminating organised political violence. However, institutional confidence has not strengthened at the same pace. Periods of institutional suspension, alongside declining trust in aspects of governance and justice, highlight the ongoing challenge of translating political stability into consistent public confidence.
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Northern Ireland Peace Index 2026
The full report, including methodology, indicator data, and findings for negative and positive peace across Northern Ireland and its 11 local government districts.
Practitioner Toolkit
Practical guidance for government, non-governmental organisations and agencies applying the Index findings to policy and programme design.